We Have T Minus 12 Years to Avert Catastrophe

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a report recently stating that drastic change is needed to avoid the world warming by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius on average. What this means, in essence, is that carbon dioxide emissions need to fall by 45% from the emission levels in 2010 by the time 2030 rolls around, and we would need to reach “net zero” emissions by 2050. So that means we could still have emissions by 2050, but those emissions would need to be recovered back from the atmosphere. The 1.5-degree Celsius marker is set to be hit between 2030 and 2052. What that means is that climate change is no longer a problem for our kids and grand kids. It’s our problem. We have to deal with it, or we will suffer the consequences. Beyond this marker, we would need to use technology to actively remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and the IPCC has stated that there is no proof that such technology would even work on a large-scale.

Carbon dioxide monthly average on Mauna Loa constitute. NOAA 2020.

So why is it so important that we stay below the 1.5 degree Celsius marker? Well, let’s start with coral reefs. At the 1.5 degree Celsius marker, it is expected that 70-90% of the world’s coral reefs will be wiped out, which is already bad enough. But if warming hits the 2 degree Celsius marker? Coral reefs could be wiped out completely. The Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in the summer once per decade instead of once per century. Climate-related poverty, food insecurity, and water shortages would be much more severe. Forest fires and heat-related deaths would also become more frequent. 10 million more people will be affected by sea-level rise, and marine fisheries would suffer a decline in stocks twice as severe as the decline expected for a 1.5 degree increase. What’s more, the world is on course for an even more disastrous 3 degrees Celsius increase. There needs to be change to avoid both of these disastrous scenarios, and fast.

“So how on earth are we supposed to turn this around and avoid dangerous levels of warming?”

Well... we need drastic change. What that includes is:

• no vehicles powered by gasoline or diesel

• no homes/business/industry heated by gas/oil

• All coal/gas power plants must be shut down

• A complete shift to green energy

• Heavy industry like aluminum production using carbon-free energy

Yes, this sounds crazy.

But we don’t have much choice anymore.

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Sources:

• https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/08/un-climate-change-panel-says-unprecedented-action-needed-to-prevent-temperature-rise.html

• https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/10/ipcc-report-climate-change-impacts-forests-emissions/?user.testname=photogallery:3

• https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/07/world/climate-change-new-ipcc-report-wxc/index.html

• https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report